Press Release

PUC Study Warns Rapid Data Center Growth Could Pose Serious Risks to Electric Reliability

Published on 9/14/2026

Filed under: Electric

Independent analysis underscores need for urgent PJM action and comprehensive Pennsylvania energy policy

HARRISBURG – The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) today released an independent analysis warning that rapidly growing electricity demand – driven largely by data center development – could create serious reliability risks across Pennsylvania and the broader region unless electricity supply keeps pace with that growth.

The analysis, conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, a nationally recognized energy consulting firm, examined whether sufficient electric resources will be available to reliably serve customers as demand grows and existing generation retires.

The study found that based on current load forecast from regional power grid operator PJM and assuming no additional policy actions, the regional grid fails to meet PJM's reliability planning standard from 2027 through 2030.

By 2030, the modeled reliability risk is nearly six times worse than PJM's planning standard.

“Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads,” said PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank. “Data center development brings significant opportunities, but that growth cannot come at the expense of the families and businesses that already depend on reliable and affordable electric service. This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable. We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand.”

A dramatically changing reliability picture

PJM plans the regional electric system around a longstanding reliability standard designed to limit potential electricity shortages to approximately one event every 10 years.

The Synapse analyses show how dramatically that risk could change if electricity demand grows faster than available supply.

Under the Reference scenario, which is the most likely scenario based on the current environment, reliability risk in 2030 is nearly six times PJM's planning standard.

Under a more severe scenario combining higher electricity demand with constrained development of new generation, the model projects an expectation of more than 13 potential loss-of-load events per year starting in 2030 – compared with the traditional planning standard of one event every 10 years.

Those results do not predict that customers will experience a specific number of outages. Rather, they illustrate the magnitude of the reliability risk if unprecedented increases in electricity demand significantly outpace the resources available to serve it.

Data centers are a major factor in that equation. In the study's severe scenario, projected new data center demand across PJM between 2029 and 2030 alone exceeds the current annual electricity demand of the entire Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

“Time matters,” Chairman DeFrank said. “The changes highlighted in this report are not decades away. The reliability pressures emerge during the next several years, and the decisions being made now will determine how prepared we are to meet them.”

PUC actions focus on reliability and consumers

The Commission has already taken several steps to address large-load growth and protect existing customers.

In May, the PUC established a model large-load tariff designed to ensure that customers requiring 50 megawatts or more of electricity bear the costs they add to the electric system rather than shifting those costs to other ratepayers.

The Commission is also implementing Act 45 of 2025, which provides an additional layer of accountability for Pennsylvania utility load forecasts submitted to PJM – an increasingly important “double check” as data center proposals drive projections of future electricity demand.

Additionally, the PUC is supporting Gov. Josh Shapiro's recent Executive Order addressing data center development and has taken steps related to PJM's proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP), including directing Pennsylvania electric distribution companies seeking qualifying RBP offsets to submit information to the Commission for review.

Last week, the Commission also unanimously adopted a motion by Vice Chair Kimberly Barrow addressing PJM's proposed RBP and Interim Resource Adequacy Service. That action reinforced the Commission's position that during electricity shortages, existing customers must be protected ahead of newly-connecting large loads such as data centers.

Urgent action needed at PJM – and across Pennsylvania

The reliability challenge extends well beyond Pennsylvania. PJM's capacity auctions for both the 2027-28 and 2028-29 delivery years fell short of the regional reliability requirement, prompting new initiatives intended to secure additional resources and better manage large-load growth.

The Commission emphasized that Pennsylvania's larger energy challenge cannot be solved by one agency, one report or one policy initiative.

“The PUC will continue doing everything within our authority to protect consumers and reliability, but this issue is bigger than the Commission,” DeFrank said. “Pennsylvania's energy system is changing dramatically, and our energy policies need to evolve with it. We need policymakers, regulators, utilities, generators, consumer advocates and other stakeholders working together on a comprehensive approach that encourages economic growth, brings needed energy resources onto the grid, protects existing ratepayers and preserves reliability.”

Read the full report:

Assessing Electricity Resource Adequacy in Pennsylvania and PJM

About the PUC

The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission balances the needs of consumers and utilities; ensures safe and reliable utility service at reasonable rates; protects the public interest; educates consumers to make independent and informed utility choices; furthers economic development; and fosters new technologies and competitive markets in an environmentally sound manner.

Visit the PUC’s website at puc.pa.gov for recent news releases and video of select proceedings. You can also follow us on X, Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram and YouTube. Search for the “Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission” or “PA PUC” on your favorite social media channel for updates on utility issues and other helpful consumer information.

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Contact:

• Nils Hagen-Frederiksen
  Press Secretary
  717-418-2701
  nhagen-fre@pa.gov
• David Hixson
  Deputy Press Secretary
  717-772-2766
  dhixson@pa.gov